Runner Radar

ilqdty daily64 editions

Every edition

The day in crypto and macro, written every morning by @ilqdty. Each edition opens with the numbers of the markets and ends with a view.

November 2026

  1. fed governor waller said tuesday a half-point hike in december should be on the table, right after october consumer prices came in hot at 0.4%
  2. fed governor waller says he backs a december hike and floated a half-point
  3. the biggest traders on hyperliquid are 16 short to 2 long on bitcoin, one day before the october inflation print
  4. us bitcoin funds lost $1.28 billion in a week and are now negative for 2026
  5. the us added 165,000 jobs in october when economists expected 59,000
  6. korea's main stock index fell 8% at the open and trading stopped for 20 minutes
  7. us oil fell 8% to $88 on bets the iran war ends
  8. democrats won the house and the senate last night
  9. the us bombed iran's qeshm island overnight and brent oil jumped back to $106, on the morning americans vote
  10. if the binance hack kept you up this weekend, here's the reopen: users pulled $3.64B net in nine and a half hours, and binance paid it out
  11. the fbi pinned the $6.3B binance theft on north korea and asked defi to block the addresses

October 2026

  1. binance put up $6.34 billion of its own money after the largest crypto hack ever
  2. hackers hit binance for $6.3B, crypto's biggest theft, and binance says about $3B is frozen
  3. dtcc went live with $30 trillion of tokenized securities and 20 banks behind it
  4. moody's rated a stablecoin for the first time, an A2 for ripple's $2.5B RLUSD
  5. strive bought 6,182 bitcoin for $511M
  6. bitcoin held above $80,108 for five straight days while markets priced 78% odds of a december fed hike
  7. arthur hayes sold about $22.28M of crypto this week, 6,400 ETH of it, ahead of a week with the fed, the bank of japan and big tech earnings
  8. netanyahu asked for a blockchain plan to prepare israel for possible banking sanctions
  9. the nasdaq fell 2.6% yesterday and brent hit $113
  10. spacex and tesla are exploring a merger that would put 30,221 bitcoin on one balance sheet
  11. jpmorgan put JPM coin on ethereum mainnet, and its kinexys network already moves $7B a day
  12. jpmorgan is moving JPM Coin onto ethereum, on a bank network that has already moved $4 trillion
  13. pumpfun earned more in fees than hyperliquid in the last reported day, $1.58M to $1.57M
  14. the nasdaq closed its worst week since june, down 4.5% as chip stocks slid
  15. mastercard now offers accounts that hold stablecoins and dollars in one place, the first product from its $1.8B bvnk deal
  16. south korea's kospi crashed 7.57% to 5,554, its seventh losing session in a row, and japan's nikkei fell 5.13% next to it
  17. papertrade collected $36.3M of trading fees last week, and zero the week before
  18. ledger wallets sold through a reseller had a hidden chip inside that texted seed phrases out over LTE, and $93M is gone
  19. ledger confirmed a hardware implant inside a wallet sold through a reseller, with losses estimated above $86M
  20. the ten-year treasury yield hit 5.37% this week, the highest in 24 years
  21. crypto companies tripled their job postings last month while fewer people applied
  22. bitcoin etfs took in money all through september while $BTC sat in the same narrow band for twelve sessions
  23. citi raised its bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000 this week, with the ten-year yield at a 24-year high
  24. core inflation came in at 3.0% in august, under the 3.3% economists expected

September 2026

  1. the fed's barr says more rate hikes are likely
  2. goldman moved its $100B treasury fund onto lynq, a settlement network built for crypto firms
  3. etf buyers had a record week on solana and bought bitcoin every single session
  4. bitcoin etfs took in $2.4B last week, enough to flip the whole year's flows positive
  5. $477k got liquidated in a day and 82% of it was longs betting the wrong way, right as the 10-year touched territory it hasn't seen since 2007
  6. the 30-year treasury hit 5.50%, the highest since 2004, and every major coin is still green on the week
  7. bitmex is shutting trading down after 11 years
  8. bitmex closed for good at 04:00 utc after eleven years
  9. bitcoin ETFs took in $999M monday, their biggest day since october 2025
  10. zetachain holders voted 99.4% to shut their own chain down and move to solana
  11. the fed raised rates to 4.00% and penciled in one more hike, and the ten year topped 5.04% midweek
  12. coinbase filed to list never expiring futures on US stocks
  13. the fed hiked for the first time since 2023 and crypto went green anyway
  14. the fed hiked 25bp yesterday, its first move up since 2023, and the 10 year closed back above 5%
  15. the fed decides at 2pm ET and futures price a 93% chance of a hike, the first since 2023
  16. polymarket prices an 80% chance the fed raises rates tomorrow at 2pm et, and no chance at all of a cut
  17. polymarket has a market on what the fed does wednesday and the crowd puts 79% on a rate hike, zero on a cut
  18. the fed, the bank of england and the bank of japan all decide rates this week
  19. the fed decides wednesday and rate traders now price 86% odds of a hike
  20. the ECB hiked, the fed is 72% to hike wednesday, and japan is expected to go on september 18
  21. brent crude closed above $100 yesterday, first time since july, and the ten year hit 4.857%
  22. cronos erased 10,961 blocks of its own history to reverse a $120.4M exploit
  23. capital b paid an average of $102,061 for its last 376 bitcoin and the price below is 23% lower
  24. liquid, a bitcoin sidechain, paused itself after 3,996 bitcoin left the wallet that backs it
  25. strategy, the company that spent years telling shareholders it would never sell a coin, is now the reason four sleeping wallets woke up
  26. traders now price 58% odds the fed hikes on september 16, up from 49% a day earlier
  27. coinbase asked the SEC for permission to run single-stock perpetual futures 24/7, so your tesla position would never close again
  28. strategy sold 7,000 bitcoin at $60k and bought it back at $80k, and the ceo went on the record to defend the round trip
  29. cme's fed futures market prices a 66% chance the fed hikes rates this month