ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the nasdaq closed its worst week since june, down 4.5% as chip stocks slid
bitcoin gave back far less over the same week, and next week's bond auctions decide whether that gap holds.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 81,617 | +0.0% | -1.6% |
| $ETH | 2436.9 | +0.6% | -2.7% |
| $SOL | 104.8 | +0.4% | -4.7% |
| BTC.D | 59.3% | ||
| F&G | 55 greed |
01Crypto4 stories
- strive now holds 35,595 bitcoin, making it the fourth largest public holder, and is pricing a $630M preferred offeringThe Block
- circle plans to take usdc into about 40 emerging markets, with the stablecoin's supply at $73.3BReuters
- over 70% of the tokenized stock volume on bnb chain trades outside US market hoursCointelegraph
- after musk's roadster demo, hourly volume on hyperliquid's tesla perp jumped 1,580% to $47M@CoinDesk
02Macro3 stories
- the GFS Pride, a singapore ship, was sunk in hormuz and other ships kept sailing through. brent sat at $108.51 friday morningCNBC, Fortune
- the us deficit for fiscal 2026 came in at $1.99 trillion, up 12% in a yearBloomberg
- coreweave fell about 11% as worries about its AI debt outweighed jensen huang's supportForbes
03Trends3 stories
- on solana, pumpfun took $1.97M of fees in a day and the ten trending coins traded $54M between them
- yesterday's solana runner $FTR gave back 47% to a $3.1M market cap on $12.8M of volume. a coin called $ELON went up 25925% to $0.8M on $4.4M traded
- the gta vi trailer sent dacity coin on solana from $104k to a $3.18M market capDecrypt
04Week ahead4 dates
- mondaychina reports third-quarter growth plus september spending and factory output. a reuters poll sees 4.4%, under the 4.5%-5% target, which keeps stimulus hopes alive
- wednesdaythe treasury sells $13 billion of 20-year bonds, a live test of who still wants long-dated debt. tesla reports after the close
- thursday 8:30 ETweekly jobless claims, plus a $26 billion auction of 5-year inflation-protected bonds
- friday 9:45 EToctober flash PMIs, the first read on business activity since the oil spike
05My view
bitcoin sat through a chip selloff and barely flinched. strive kept stacking coins and circle is taking its dollar into new countries, so the people who think in years kept buying while tech stocks broke.
the risk i'm tracking is money, and it shows up in two places. stablecoin supply slipped 0.39% over seven days, so this week ran on dollars already inside crypto. and the ten-year closed friday at 5.10%, which is exactly what wednesday's auction will test.
a sloppy auction that pushes the ten-year higher and drags crypto down with stocks would change my mind. i honestly can't tell yet whether bitcoin held on new demand or because the sellers were already done.
the fed stays quiet until its october 27-28 meeting, so the data does all the talking this week. a market that holds while stocks crack has buyers behind it, and next week shows how deep they go.
rest today. china monday, the auction wednesday, PMIs friday. monday we lock tf in.