ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
south korea's kospi crashed 7.57% to 5,554, its seventh losing session in a row, and japan's nikkei fell 5.13% next to it
bitcoin took a much smaller hit, and this morning's producer prices decide if it stays that way.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 81,097 | -0.7% | -0.8% |
| $ETH | 2367.8 | -2.2% | -4.3% |
| $SOL | 102.3 | -1.8% | -6.6% |
| BTC.D | 60.0% | ||
| F&G | 53 neutral |
01Crypto4 stories
- kraken's parent payward bought lithuania's saldo bank, so a crypto firm now owns a bank in the EU for the first time@CoinDesk, citing the Financial Times
- bny and citadel securities ran the first tokenized treasury repo on a major triparty platformThe Block
- ai agents made 138 million crypto payments on base, and 87% of them were under 10 centsFortune, citing Chainalysis
- hex founder richard heart was arrested in istanbul, and turkish media report police seized $4 million in cash and 64 watches@CoinDesk
02Macro3 stories
- us consumer prices rose 3.7% in september against 3.6% expected, with core at 2.6%BLS
- the us ten-year yield still fell more than 10 basis points as asia sold offSaxo
- five fed districts told the beige book that ai investment cut or delayed hiringFederal Reserve
03Today3 stories
- 8:30 ET: september producer prices, retail sales and jobless claims. they show whether the cpi heat reached factories and shoppers before the fed meets oct 27 to 28
- 1pm ET: the treasury sells 30-year bonds. a weak auction pushes long rates back up
- 11:30pm ET: fed chair warsh sits down with imf chief georgieva
04Trends3 stories
- on solana, pumpfun took $1.91M of fees and the ten trending coins traded $40M between them. $DOPE led the group with $7.5M of volume on a $4.7M market cap, up 92%
- clanker, the token launcher on base, went from $11K to $115K of daily fees in three daysDefiLlama fees
- floyd mayweather's coin on fomo, a solana trading app, hit a $1M market cap and then fell 96% in three hoursDecrypt
05My view
the bond market made the most interesting move. consumer prices came in hot and yields still fell, because money ran out of korean and japanese stocks and into treasuries. crypto sat in the middle of that and lost a small slice of what asia lost, on the same day kraken bought a bank and wall street settled a repo on chain.
the first risk is the long end. the 1pm auction can wipe out that yield drop in one afternoon. the second is stablecoins: total supply sits at $305.5B and shrank 0.60% on the week. that means the market held up on money that was already inside crypto, and new buyers still haven't come in.
what changes my mind is producer prices running as hot as consumer prices did. then a hike on the 28th looks a lot more likely than it does now, and i'd expect crypto to finally feel the asian selloff. i don't know yet if this calm is conviction or just korean sellers holding nothing crypto to sell. still, a market that takes a crash next door this quietly has buyers underneath it.
ppi at 8:30, then the long bond at 1pm. lock in.