ilqdty daily3 min readRead the latest
bitcoin etfs took in money all through september while $BTC sat in the same narrow band for twelve sessions
wednesday the fed publishes its september notes and treasury auctions ten-year paper, and that is what decides who gets paid.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 84,629 | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| $ETH | 2684.4 | +0.6% | -0.5% |
| $SOL | 119.4 | +0.7% | -1.7% |
| BTC.D | 59.2% | ||
| F&G | 67 greed |
01Crypto4 stories
- spot bitcoin etfs pulled in $2.65 billion in september, ether funds $832 million (the block). friday added another $102.7M on the bitcoin side while ether funds lost $55.4M.
- blast, an ethereum layer 2 that once held $2.2 billion, is shutting down after a 98% collapse@CoinDesk
- drift on solana opened claims for its exploit victims, about 1% back so far on $295.4 million stolenthe block
- the community bank lobby is suing the regulator that hands out national trust charters to crypto firms, to stop it@CoinDesk
02Macro4 stories
- the US added just 29,000 jobs in september and the prior two months were revised down 60,000bls employment situation
- odds of an october fed hike fell to 16% from 64% a week agoyahoo finance
- the ten-year yield still rose to 5.28% after that weak reportcnbc
- the g7 and partners will release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel, and crude finished friday at $91.11cnbc
03Trends3 stories
- pumpfun, the launchpad on solana, out-earned hyperliquid's perps venue on fees over the last seven days, $15.98M against $14.35M (defillama). over 30 days hyperliquid is still the bigger business.
- $SI, a stonkfun token on solana that pays its holders in tokenized nvidia stock out of a 3% tax on every trade, is up 21% and has paid out $2.64M since launch, roughly $32 a day per $10,000 held at today's volume
- the rest of the solana trending list is pure churn. $HOOKED +128% at a $14.8M cap, $POOPYBOT +778% on $5.9M of volume, and $www down 91% after trading $12.0M in a day. the whole top ten moved $98M.
04Today2 stories
- monday 10:00 ET, the ism services survey for september, expected 55.1 against 55.4. first check on whether weak hiring has reached the services side of the economy.
- wednesday, the fed releases the internal notes from the september meeting where it raised rates (2:00 pm ET), and treasury auctions ten-year paper two hours earlier at 1:00 pm ET. the notes say how close another hike was, the auction says who still wants to own duration.
05My view
the etf buyers did the one thing a quiet market needs, which is keep showing up. stablecoin supply grew 1.33% on the week on top of that, so the dollars came from outside rather than rotating between coins. and the chains people actually use are busier, with solana collecting $1.1M of fees in a day, 28% above its own monthly pace.
the risk sits at the long end. yields went up on a jobs report that was plainly bad, which is the bond market saying inflation sets the price of money right now, not growth. high-yield credit spreads widened 44 basis points in five days, and that kind of move has historically reached stocks and crypto within days. wednesday is where it gets settled.
what would change my read: another week of stablecoin supply shrinking, or a ten-year that prints a fresh high right after the auction. neither has happened. twelve quiet sessions with real money arriving reads to me as accumulation, and the buyers have the week to prove it.
it's saturday and the only desk open is yours. ism monday, minutes and the auction wednesday. lock in.