ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the fed's barr says more rate hikes are likely
consumer confidence just printed 81.9, its lowest since 2014, and this morning's pce inflation number is the one i care about today.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 83,856 | +0.3% | -0.6% |
| $ETH | 2696.9 | +0.7% | +0.5% |
| $SOL | 119.8 | +0.6% | +4.2% |
| BTC.D | 58.3% | ||
| F&G | 71 greed |
01Crypto4 stories
- bitwise listed the first us spot $NEAR etf, staking included. $NEAR is +20.9% on the week, just behind $SUI at +21.5%the block
- near intents says it blocked over $50M of the bitget hacker's swaps before they clearedcointelegraph
- bitget customers pulled $463M out in a single day after the exchange lost $388M to the hackbloomberg
- robinhood switched on crypto perps up to 10x plus ai agents that place trades for userscoindesk
02Macro3 stories
- the thirty-year treasury yield topped 5.6%, the highest since 2002bloomberg
- job openings fell to 7.079M against the 7.225M expectedbls
- the bank of japan sits at 1.25%, its highest since 1995, and faster hikes are back on the tablereuters
03Trends3 stories
- pumpfun on solana out-earned pons v2 on robinhood chain last week, $14.0M against $11.5M in fees. pons still triples it over 30 days, and robinhood chain's 90-day gas subsidy just endeddefillama, kucoin news
- goplus flagged a second rug factory on robinhood chain, one operation cycling 3,589 ETH, about $9.49M, through fresh tokensgoplus via cryptoslate
- thorchain, a cross-chain swap venue that includes bitcoin, went from $0.23M to $2.22M in weekly fees, 9.7x in seven days
04Today3 stories
- 8:15 ET: adp private payrolls, the first look at september hiring before friday's official number
- 8:30 ET: august pce inflation, the gauge the fed actually targets, core seen +0.3% on the month
- after the close: micron earnings against $50B of revenue guidance, the read on ai memory demand
05My view
the fed keeps talking about more hikes, treasury yields keep climbing, and money still walked into crypto this week. stablecoin market cap is $311.2B and grew 1.07% over seven days. new dollars arriving while borrowing costs are this high says more than new dollars arriving when money is cheap.
the risk i'm tracking is the labor market. openings missed, confidence is sliding, and friday's jobs report is what decides whether the fed is tightening into a slowdown. tonight's federal funding deadline can push that report back, and a week with no data is how crowded positioning goes unnoticed.
i can't tell yet whether oil coming down is relief or demand drying up, and that changes the whole read. what i do know is that the building did not pause: an etf that stakes, an exchange routing around its own attacker, a broker handing retail leverage. rates decide what people are willing to pay for all of it.
three prints and a shutdown clock between here and friday's jobs number. lock in.