ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the 30-year treasury hit 5.50%, the highest since 2004, and every major coin is still green on the week
that gap is the one i chased this morning.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 84,712 | +0.4% | +4.7% |
| $ETH | 2711.1 | +0.9% | +3.8% |
| $SOL | 118.8 | +1.5% | +5.4% |
| BTC.D | 58.9% | ||
| F&G | 71 greed |
01Crypto3 stories
- ark tokenized its $1.3B venture fund on ethereum, openai and anthropic stakes includedthe block
- bitget lost $352M from an internet-connected wallet and paused withdrawals, cold storage untouched@CoinDesk
- new york sued polymarket as illegal gambling, asking $100,000 per sports bet offeredbloomberg
02Macro2 stories
- traders now price more than 75% odds of an october fed hike, up from 49%cnbc
- jobless claims fell to 197,000, among the lowest since 1969bloomberg
03Trends2 stories
- the ten coins trending on solana did $96M of volume in a day, and axiom, a trading app there, out-earned pumpfun: $1.74M to $1.65M in feesdefillama
- $GO did $15.2M of volume at an $8.0M market cap, up 475%, while $STONK, the biggest of them at $267.0M, slipped 4%
04Today2 stories
- august pce at 8:30 ET, the inflation gauge the fed decides on. it owns those october odds
- bitcoin and ether quarterly options expire at 4am ET on deribit, the quarter's reset
05My view
the fed is being priced to hike into a market that keeps going up, and the second half of that is getting skipped. bitcoin etfs took in $190.6M in the latest session while long-dated treasury yields made new highs.
the risk i'm tracking is where the rest came from. stablecoin supply is $312.3B, up 0.91% on the week, so this ran on money already inside. the outside buyer still has not arrived.
credit would change my mind. the junk-bond risk premium sits at 2.73% and has barely moved in a month, which is what a growth scare looks like. stress shows up there before it shows up in bitcoin. until that widens, buyers have the better argument.
last friday of the quarter. one inflation print between here and the weekend. lock in.