ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the fed hiked for the first time since 2023 and crypto went green anyway
one of those is wrong and today's quarterly expiry starts settling it.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 78,224 | +2.4% | +1.4% |
| $ETH | 2516.3 | +2.9% | +0.0% |
| $SOL | 106.5 | +4.9% | +4.0% |
| BTC.D | 58.1% | ||
| F&G | 56 greed |
01Crypto3 stories
- the SEC opened a five year exemption for US stocks to trade onchainCNBC
- lagarde called greece's prime minister to block binance's EU licenseWSJ via @Cointelegraph
- S&P Global bought OpenZeppelin, whose code secured $37 trillion of transfersThe Block
02Macro3 stories
- the fed took rates to 3.75% to 4% on a 12-0 voteFederal Reserve
- the bank of japan went to 1.25%, its highest in 31 yearsAP
- jobless claims fell to 196,000 against 207,500 expectedUS Department of Labor
03Today2 stories
- quarterly options and futures expiry, so volume runs heavy into the close
- fed governor bowman speaks at 9:30am on stress testing, the banks' health check under higher rates
04Trends3 stories
- pumpfun took $1.65M of fees in a day on solana while the ten hottest coins there traded $125M between them
- axiom, a trading app on solana, now out-earns pumpfun over 7 days, $11.62M against $10.32MDefiLlama
- arc, the new chain, watched its first memecoins give it back a day after launch: $LONG -77%, $COOL -75%, $TOLLY -56%CoinDesk
05My view
three central banks met this week and leaned the same way. washington and tokyo raised, and at the bank of england three of nine members voted to hike a rate the committee held. crypto climbed through all of it.
the calm is the odd part. the ten year sits at 4.95% and VIX is 15.3. the flows are narrower than the price suggests: bitcoin ETFs took $159.5M on the last reported day while ether ETFs gave back $39.2M.
the dollar is what would change my mind. DXY at 100.36 is soft for a currency whose central bank just started paying more, and if it firms from here this move gets expensive to hold. for now buyers have the upper hand, and the best evidence is that a unanimous hike landed and stock and credit markets barely moved.
i still don't know who was bidding bitcoin on hike day, and that bothers me more than the hike itself. have a good friday.