ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
polymarket prices an 80% chance the fed raises rates tomorrow at 2pm et, and no chance at all of a cut
crypto is still sitting in greed and that is the part that bugs me this morning.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 76,978 | -1.5% | -1.8% |
| $ETH | 2475.4 | -1.6% | -0.4% |
| $SOL | 100.8 | -1.7% | -2.4% |
| BTC.D | 58.8% | ||
| F&G | 69 greed |
01Crypto3 stories
- bitcoin etfs took in $160.0M yesterday, ether etfs $121.0M. somebody is still adding into the meeting.
- hyperliquid paid $59.0M to its token holders over 30 days, more than any other app in crypto, and $HYPE still fell 6.8% on the week@DefiLlama
- pumpfun now routes 77% of its revenue to token holders, against 29% over its lifetime. who gets paid there has quietly changed.
02Macro3 stories
- the 10 year sits at 4.96% and the 30 year mortgage is back at 7.12% (wolf street). borrowing costs tightened before the fed did.
- the dollar index pushed to 99.60 and gold fell 0.45% on the day. that combination is money leaving, not rotating.
- stablecoin supply held flat at $310.3B over the week. no fresh dollars arrived to catch anything.
03Today2 stories
- china publishes its august activity data today: factory output, retail spending, investment. the last big read on that economy before the fed moves.
- tomorrow 2pm et the fed decides and publishes new projections for where rates go from here, powell takes questions at 2:30. the projections matter more than the decision.
04Trends3 stories
- the ten trending coins on solana traded $130M between them in 24 hours, most of it crowding into bike and cat spinoffs.
- pons, a launchpad running on robinhood's own chain, collected $44.7M in fees over seven days against uniswap v4's $29.5M@DefiLlama
- $biketyson ran 37% higher to a $5.8M cap on $17.7M of volume, while $bikecate did $3.5M of volume on the way to -100% with its cap at zero. same meta, opposite endings.
05My view
two crowds are looking at the same meeting. the rates crowd priced the hike days ago and moved on to the projections, which is the part that sets the next six months. the crypto crowd has priced nothing.
bitcoin has spent nine sessions inside the same band, ether thirteen, and bitcoin's options market asks 39.1% annualized for a move, near the middle of its own last 30 days. nobody is paying up for protection the day before a live fed meeting. that is either confidence or inattention, and i lean inattention.
what would flip me is the dollar. if it rolls back under last week's base while yields ease at the same time, this consolidation breaks upward and the greed reading earns itself.
nothing today outranks tomorrow at 2. see you after the dots.