ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the fed decides at 2pm ET and futures price a 93% chance of a hike, the first since 2023
crypto barely moved overnight, so one of the two is wrong by this afternoon.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 75,946 | +0.4% | -3.0% |
| $ETH | 2402.6 | +0.2% | -2.6% |
| $SOL | 97.3 | +0.5% | -4.2% |
| BTC.D | 58.5% | ||
| F&G | 51 neutral |
01Crypto4 stories
- the senate blocked the CLARITY act 49 to 50, far short of the 60 votes it neededBloomberg
- someone turned 25 cents of bitcoin into 46.1B of fake wrapped bitcoin on the symbiosis bridge@CoinDesk
- the DOJ charged two former robinhood engineers with front-running listings on hyperliquidThe Block
- ethiopia cut bitcoin miners to 23% of their contracted power as the dams run lowBloomberg
02Macro3 stories
- the US 10 year hit 5.04%, the highest since 2007, hours before the decisionCNBC
- brent sits at $106.57, up 57% in a year, after saudi arabia shut its east-west pipelineFortune
- UK inflation rose to 3.1% in august, a day before the bank of england meetsONS
03Today2 stories
- 8:30am ET: US retail sales for august, the last look at whether people are still spending before the fed moves
- 2pm ET: the decision, a new dot plot and the press conference. the dot plot says whether this is one hike or the first of several
04Trends3 stories
- solana's launch corner paid $1.59M of fees to pumpfun in a day while the ten most traded coins there did $173M between themDefiLlama
- $PAID traded $70.0M on a $9.0M market cap and is up 330854%; $STONK is the big one of that group at $146.5M, down 4%
- axiom, a trading app on solana and bsc, out-earned pumpfun last week, $10.04M of fees against $9.75MDefiLlama
05My view
the new york fed's factory survey fell 13 points to 7.6 while the prices those companies pay jumped to 63.1. fewer orders, costlier inputs, and a rate decision two days later.
so the fed is raising into a slowdown, and energy is doing most of the inflating. that lifts costs everywhere and a hike does not fix it quickly.
crypto spent this year priced as a rate cut asset and nobody has repriced it yet. i can't square flat coins with the long end at a 2007 high, and one of those two positions pays for the other by tonight. whoever is short the high duration stuff has the easier side of today.
big afternoon. eat lunch before two.