ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
brent crude closed above $100 yesterday, first time since july, and the ten year hit 4.857%
friday's cpi decides whether the fed hikes into that.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 77,905 | -0.5% | -4.1% |
| $ETH | 2466.4 | -0.0% | -1.7% |
| $SOL | 101.0 | -0.5% | -2.8% |
| BTC.D | 58.6% | ||
| F&G | 69 greed |
01Crypto3 stories
- germany drafted a flat 25% tax on crypto gains, ending the one year tax free holdDecrypt
- consensys splits in two, metamask becomes its own company under joe lubin@TheBlock__
- the secret service froze $52.8M of tether, so one flagged group moved $2.8M into USDD, which nobody can freezeDecrypt
02Macro2 stories
- the treasury tripled its long end buyback to $6 billion from the $2 billion it had plannedU.S. Treasury
- traders price roughly 60% odds that the fed hikes on september 16CME FedWatch
03Trends2 stories
- pons, the launchpad on robinhood chain, took $57.4M of fees in 7 days against uniswap's $49.1M. over 30 days uniswap is still bigger, $108.8M to $89.2MDefiLlama
- a hunter biden coin on base called LAPTOP printed a $144B fully diluted valuation sitting on $48K of pool liquidity (@CoinDesk). on solana $STONK held a $170.9M market cap on $94.3M of volume, down 4%
04Today3 stories
- 8:15am ET, the ecb decides. the hike to 2.50% is fully priced, so the reaction lives entirely in what lagarde says after
- 8:30am ET, august producer prices and jobless claims. july's ppi ran 4.7% a year, and another hot one makes friday academic
- after the close, oracle reports, with options pricing an 11% move on a $638 billion backlog
05My view
europe raises rates this morning and america might next week. the discount rate is going up on everything without cash flow behind it, which is most of what trades here.
the part that bothers me: prices are red for the week and the sentiment gauge still reads greed. holders have stopped adding without deciding to leave, so nobody is being forced out and there is nothing cheap sitting on the floor. this kind of drawdown just takes longer.
one wallet added $9.9M of HYPE this week and now sits on 1.89M tokens staked (@lookonchain). that is a bet on protocol revenue outrunning the macro, and i cannot tell yet whether it is early or just stubborn.
lagarde takes questions right after the decision. worth hearing her in full, the headline will only carry the hike.