ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the ECB hiked, the fed is 72% to hike wednesday, and japan is expected to go on september 18
three in eight days, and nobody i read is pricing them together.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 76,970 | +0.6% | -3.3% |
| $ETH | 2464.3 | +1.1% | +0.4% |
| $SOL | 99.3 | +0.7% | -2.5% |
| BTC.D | 58.5% | ||
| F&G | 56 greed |
01Crypto4 stories
- nasdaq put $100M into kraken's parent payward at a $21B valuationFortune
- binance now sits on 693,000 BTC, 30% of every coin held on exchanges@WuBlockchain
- the senate dropped a 630-page clarity act rewrite five days before the vote@TheBlock__
- bitcoin ETFs lost $282.6M in the latest session, ether ETFs another $29.8M
02Macro3 stories
- brent crude jumped 6.1% to $107.40, its highest print since mayCNN Business
- august producer prices rose 5.4% over twelve monthsBureau of Labor Statistics
- the ECB lifted its deposit rate to 2.50% and lagarde called the hike a no brainerBloomberg
03Trends3 stories
- pons, the launchpad on robinhood chain, took $56.9M in fees over the last seven days, more than uniswap v4 at $46.4M. over 30 days uniswap is still aheadDefiLlama
- solana created 263,000 new tokens in one day, a record for the chain@SolanaFloor
- the hunter biden $LAPTOP token opened at $1.6B on base and fell 98% inside an hourQuartz / Bubblemaps
04Today3 stories
- 8:30am ET: august CPI, the last inflation reading the fed gets before it decides. consensus is 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annual, and core at 0.3% or higher is read as the trigger.
- wednesday 2pm ETthe fed decision and the dot plot, the first september meeting under new chair kevin warsh. retail sales land the same morning.
- friday september 18: the bank of japan. swaps sit near 97% for a hike off 1%, the biggest risk to carry trades on the calendarBloomberg
05My view
lagarde hiked and called it obvious. warsh runs his first meeting wednesday with the market pricing a hike out of him. crude is what pulls all of them the same way, and the US ten year sits at 4.94% because of it.
here is the part i keep turning over. the total pile of stablecoins has not grown in a week, flat at $309.8B, and in that same week solana had its busiest day of token creation ever and a launchpad on another chain started out-earning uniswap. more coins, same money. that ends one way for the median one.
what would change my mind arrives in two hours. a core CPI under consensus takes the whole hiking story apart by lunch and most of what i just wrote goes stale with it. i would rather say that now than pretend i have a read that survives the print.
it's a friday with a CPI in it. those are rarely boring.