ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the fed decides wednesday and rate traders now price 86% odds of a hike
that one number set up everything else i read this morning.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 77,313 | +0.2% | -3.1% |
| $ETH | 2530.6 | +0.6% | +2.0% |
| $SOL | 101.9 | -0.5% | -1.2% |
| BTC.D | 58.2% | ||
| F&G | 63 greed |
01Crypto3 stories
- blockstream refused to pay a ransom for the 598.5 bitcoin missing from liquidThe Block
- kalshi filed to list 60 US stock perps, tesla and nvidia includedCoinDesk
- grayscale says a zcash rig earns 2x a bitcoin rig's daily revenue@WuBlockchain
02Macro2 stories
- august CPI ran 3.4% over the year, gasoline alone up 27.4%Bureau of Labor Statistics
- consumer sentiment fell to 47.8, the second lowest reading since 1952University of Michigan
03Trends3 stories
- solana's ten hottest new coins traded $249M between them in a day, and stonkfun, a launchpad there, went from $0.37M of fees in a week to $7.64M in the nextDefiLlama
- pons v2, a launchpad on robinhood chain, out-earned uniswap v4 last week, $54.4M of fees against $38.9MDefiLlama
- $STONK gave back 16% at a $224.9M cap while $EMBER ran 108% on $73.1M of volume. on base, the coin named after hunter biden's laptop fell to $129M from $183M overnightCoinGecko
04Today2 dates
- wednesday 2:00 pm ETthe fed announces with new projections and a kevin warsh press conference
- fridaythe bank of japan decides with the yen weak and its ten year bond at the highest since 1996
05My view
friday's inflation number was mostly gasoline. a rate hike does not change the price of fuel, so the fed would be tightening into a cost it does not control.
the stock market is not behaving like a hike is coming. SPY closed friday up 0.85% while the ten year yield sits near 4.97%. one of those two is wrong by thursday.
crypto did not pick a side. bitcoin funds lost $13.3M on friday while ether funds took in $216.4M. what would change my mind is the ten year after wednesday: if it falls even with a hike, the inflation scare was fuel and it passes. if it climbs anyway, the bond market has stopped believing the fed can finish this.
it's saturday and this is the only market open. go outside anyway.