ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
traders now price 58% odds the fed hikes on september 16, up from 49% a day earlier
august payrolls came in at 162,000, triple what economists forecast.
| Markets | Level | 7d |
|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 79,611 | +1.8% |
| $ETH | 2,456 | -0.1% |
| $SOL | 102.63 | -2.9% |
| F&G | 73 greed | |
| $NEAR | 2.27 | +20.4% |
01Crypto4 stories
- zcash traded above $1,000 for the first time, up 94% in a monthThe Block
- fincen linked $12.7B across 33,904 filings to scam compounds overseas@Cointelegraph
- openreserve, backed by a16z, cleared the OCC for a full national bank charterDecrypt
- southeast asian crypto startups raised $680M this year across only 25 rounds, double 2025CoinDesk
02Macro3 stories
- brent crude gained 7.6% on the week and us diesel hit a record $5.85@Reuters
- the ten year treasury pays 4.77% and the thirty year 5.25%Federal Reserve H.15
- deepseek is planning at least 160,000 huawei chips at a single 1GW siteBloomberg
03Solana trenches1 story
- pumpfun paid $26.8M to its token holders over the last 30 days, 56% of everything it collected in fees, and 77% of its revenue now goes to holders against 29% over its life. the last 24 hours brought in $0.50M, slower than the month behind it. the split got generous right as the volume cooled.
04Today3 stories
- monday is labor day. us markets and the government statistics offices are shut, so the whole week's data compresses into thursday and friday.
- thursday brings august producer prices, the first inflation reading of the week and one of the inputs to the measure the fed actually targets.
- friday brings august consumer prices, the last big inflation number before the fed decides.
05My view
friday's jobs report ended the rate cut argument. hiring came in far above what anyone modeled, fuel ran hard on the week, and no central bank eases into that combination.
crypto has not marked it. sentiment is still sitting in greed after a week where the rates story went against it, and traders have paid to hold longs in 88 of the last 90 funding windows. that is a month of almost nobody taking the other side. both of those are true at once and i can't square them yet.
the thing i'm watching is whether traders start paying to be short. if that happens while prices hold, the crowd has already cleared out and the hike stops being the thing that matters. for now buyers are in control, and the evidence is zcash, near and bnb all trading above the best level they saw in the last 20 days while the macro argument went the other way.
i'll post the day those odds go back to a coin flip. have a good saturday, the market can wait.