ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
cme's fed futures market prices a 66% chance the fed hikes rates this month
friday's jobs report is what settles it.
| Markets | Level | 7d |
|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 76,682 | -3.1% |
| $ETH | 2,374 | -5.4% |
| $SOL | 98.22 | -4.0% |
| F&G | 63 greed | |
| $HYPE | 81.09 | -1.5% |
01Crypto3 stories
- 21 banks including goldman, citi and bank of america will issue a joint dollar stablecoin in 2027reuters
- the SEC proposed letting blockchains act as the official record of who owns a share, the first rewrite of transfer agent rules in 40 yearsSEC filing
- core DAO ran an emergency fork after validators gamed a formula that was routing 90% of new issuance to themselves@Cointelegraph
02Macro3 stories
- japan's 10 year government bond yield crossed 3% for the first time since 1996, which pulls japanese money home and out of everyone else's bondscnbc
- US factory activity printed 54.6, an eighth straight month of expansioninstitute for supply management
- brent crude jumped about 5% after US strikes on iranbloomberg
03Solana trenches2 stories
- pumpfun paid $27.0M to its token holders over the last 30 days, 57% of everything it collected and the third biggest holder payout in crypto (defillama). solana's own network fees ran $0.9M in 24 hours, 21% above its 30 day average.
- a wallet called AGwssats minted $SKELLY on pumpfun and it was finished inside the day. one deployer, one coin, gone.
04Today3 stories
- ADP publishes its count of private payrolls for august, expected near 48,000 against 44,000 last month, the first read on whether hiring is cooling
- the fed releases its beige book, the district by district survey of the economy the committee reads two weeks before it decides
- 9:45 ET, the bank of canada decides, and all 35 economists surveyed expect no change at 2.25%
05My view
rates are running crypto right now. the US 10 year sits at 4.80%, and when the safe thing pays that much, the most speculative thing on the board gets marked down a little every day. that is most of what last week was.
here is what does not add up. everyone is set up for a hike, but the last jobs report showed the economy losing 23,000 jobs, with 103,000 more quietly revised away from earlier months. you do not usually hike into that.
friday's number settles it. the tell i am watching is the dollar, which sat at 99.86 this morning and has gone nowhere while yields climbed. if a hike were really coming, the dollar should be leading it. sellers have control today, and the reason is in the bond market rather than in anything crypto did to itself.
midweek, and the whole week is one number away. i will post what friday does to it.