ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
us oil fell 8% to $88 on bets the iran war ends
a deal was the upside the odds ignored on monday, and oil is the first market to price it.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 80,331 | -0.2% | +3.1% |
| $ETH | 2418.9 | -0.2% | +7.4% |
| $SOL | 96.5 | +1.0% | +0.9% |
| BTC.D | 60.1% | ||
| F&G | 50 neutral |
01Crypto3 stories
- circle earned $865M in the quarter and still cut 5% of its staffThe Block
- crypto super PACs spent $170M on the midterms and lost most of their racesFortune
- binance and polymarket asked polygon to rewrite its chain history and claw back $6.8M stolen@Cointelegraph
02Macro3 stories
- us private employers added 86,000 jobs in october, beating forecastsYahoo Finance
- the dow jumped 3% after the midterms, while power stocks like vistra sank 15%Fortune
- euro zone inflation hit a three-year high, with energy prices up 20.8%Eurostat
03Trends3 stories
- on solana, pumpfun took $1.73M in fees in a day and the ten trending coins traded $48M combined
- on ethereum, users paid $12.7M in fees over 7 days, up from $1.87M the week beforeDefiLlama fees
- on solana, the trump family's memecoin fell 17% the day democrats won congress @Cointelegraph. the same day $Democat (+18383%) traded $2.1M at a $0.5M cap
04Today3 stories
- 7am ET, the bank of england, with a quarter-point hike expected, its first since august 2023
- 8:30am ET, weekly jobless claims, the first labor read after the private jobs beat
- friday 8:30am ET, the october jobs report, about 65,000 expected. a strong one makes a december fed hike almost certain
05My view
the midterms are over and the big markets liked the result. stocks jumped, oil dropped, and the dollar barely moved. crypto took a slower day, and i can't tell yet if it's late to this rally or sitting it out.
the biggest traders on hyperliquid still lean short on bitcoin, 11 accounts to 6. if prices hold into friday, those shorts have to buy back.
the weak spot is stablecoins. supply shrank 1.80% this week to $294.7B, so the money moving coins was already inside. the new buyer still has to show up.
as of this morning none of monday's lines broke. the ten-year sits at 4.89%, under the 5.31% that would hurt, and bitcoin is well above $75,446. im still bullish.
claims today, payrolls tomorrow, and the fed's december odds move on both. lock in.