ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
if the binance hack kept you up this weekend, here's the reopen: users pulled $3.64B net in nine and a half hours, and binance paid it out
SourceThe Block
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 77,878 | -0.6% | -2.8% |
| $ETH | 2285.8 | +0.5% | -1.6% |
| $SOL | 94.0 | -0.6% | -6.9% |
| BTC.D | 59.9% | ||
| F&G | 37 fear |
01Crypto4 stories
- a one-block ethereum reorg bug halted thorchain on 10 chains, which slowed the binance hackers down@Cointelegraph
- the FBI pinned the $6B heist on north korea's TraderTraitor, the same group that hit bybitCBS News
- north korean hackers still pushed $242M of the loot through tron in two days@TheBlock__
- spot bitcoin ETFs lost $643.2M in a day, their worst outflow of octoberDecrypt
02Macro3 stories
- south korea's october exports hit a record $115.3 billion, up 93.7%CNBC
- WTI crude fell 4.1% to $99.85, back under $100 on US-iran diplomacy hopesCNBC
- openai cut its funding round target to $20 billion from $30 billion (TechCrunch, citing the FT and WSJ)
03Trends3 stories
- on solana, pumpfun took $1.38M in fees over the last day and the ten trending coins traded $26M combined
- on ethereum, uniswap v3 took $13.2M in fees over 7 days and passed the newer v4 at $11.3M. over 30 days v4 still leads, $49.7M against $33.9MDefiLlama fees
- on solana, $Anakin (+115%) traded $6.2M at a $2.8M cap on viral star wars memes (TokenPost), and $PEACE (+12767%) went from nowhere to a $0.4M cap on $2.9M of volume
04Today3 stories
- 10:00 ET, ISM manufacturing for october. september printed 54.5, and this is the first read on whether US factories held up through the oil spike
- after the close, apple reports earnings
- 10:30 PM ET, australia's central bank decides, with about 80% odds of a hike to 4.85%
05My view
binance had the money. users pulled cash the moment withdrawals reopened after a hack that size, and it went out. the question people carried all weekend was whether the exchange could pay, and it answered before monday even started.
the risk i'm tracking is where those dollars land. stablecoin supply shrank 1.50% over the week and ETF buyers stepped back too, so some of this money may be leaving crypto for good. two dates will show it: tuesday's midterms, with reports the US may decide on new iran strikes after the vote, and wednesday's treasury refunding, which sets how much long-dated debt gets sold.
what would change my mind is friday's jobs report missing the roughly 55,000 consensus badly while the ten-year climbs from 4.93%. that combo means slower growth and pricier money in the same week.
until then i lean constructive. the biggest fear of the weekend got tested and the exchange held up, which leaves one less thing to price going into a heavy week.
ism at 10, apple after the bell, australia tonight. lock in.