ilqdty daily2 min readFollow @ilqdty
fed governor waller said tuesday a half-point hike in december should be on the table, right after october consumer prices came in hot at 0.4%
bitcoin held above sunday's low anyway.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 74,030 | +0.4% | -8.0% |
| $ETH | 2056.8 | +0.2% | -15.1% |
| $SOL | 83.9 | +0.7% | -12.2% |
| BTC.D | 60.5% | ||
| F&G | 29 fear |
01Crypto4 stories
- goldman, citi and other banks reportedly put $270 million into a joint stablecoinCoinDesk, citing Bloomberg
- trump media posted a $410 million quarterly profit, almost all of it bitcoin gainsDecrypt
- grayscale bought a front-page wall street journal ad for zcash while the token fell 13%The Block
- the cftc, the us derivatives regulator, warned kalshi that charges over unfiled contracts are comingCointelegraph, citing Politico
02Macro3 stories
03Trends3 stories
- on thorchain, the swap venue for native bitcoin, fees went 2.6x in a week, from $0.74M to $1.92MDefiLlama fees
- on solana, meteora's trading pools out-earned the whole ethereum chain over 7 days, $3.49M against $2.58M. over 30 days ethereum is still biggerDefiLlama fees
- the ten trending solana coins traded $78M combined, up from $27M tuesday. $mihao (+2031%) did $45.6M of volume at a $13.1M cap, and $NIHAO (+361089%) ran to $8.4M
04Today3 dates
- veterans day: the bond market is closed and stocks trade as normal, so rates sit still after tuesday's jump
- thursday 8:30am etweekly jobless claims, then the thirty-year bond auction at 1pm et
- friday 8:30am etoctober wholesale prices, the second inflation read of the week and the one that sizes the december hike bets
05My view
tuesday gave the bears what they asked for: a hot inflation number and a fed governor talking about bigger hikes.
bitcoin took the hit and held. as of this morning it sits above sunday's $73,510 low, the level i named on monday. the big wallets on hyperliquid are still 17 short to 4 long on bitcoin, and if the drop stalls here, those shorts have to buy to get out.
two risks sit on my list. a ten-year close above 5.31%, its october high, pulls stocks and crypto down together. stablecoin supply shrank 1.59% in a week to $291.1B, so the new buyer has not shown up yet.
im still bullish. a daily close back above $75,451 undoes sunday's break, and friday's wholesale prices set how loud the hike talk gets.
thanks to every veteran out there. friday is the real test. lock in.