ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the fbi pinned the $6.3B binance theft on north korea and asked defi to block the addresses
i care most about that second part, because defi apps now have to decide who they refuse.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 77,913 | +0.5% | -2.7% |
| $ETH | 2266.8 | +0.5% | -2.7% |
| $SOL | 95.2 | -0.2% | -6.0% |
| BTC.D | 59.9% | ||
| F&G | 34 fear |
01Crypto3 stories
- binance reopened withdrawals, bitcoin network first, three days after the hack@Cointelegraph
- nasdaq's NXTT may sell $449M of bitcoin, over 50 times its $7.8M equity value@CoinDesk
- a hacker using "offensive agentic techniques" breached chainalysis and exposed customer names and emails@TheBlock__
02Macro3 stories
- the nasdaq fell 2.86% on friday and 5.3% in october, its worst month since march 2025CNBC
- china's official factory survey fell to 49.3 in october, back in contractionNewsquawk
- OPEC+ agreed in principle to hold december targets, sources sayThe Tribune, citing Reuters
03Trends3 stories
- on ethereum, chain fees passed tron over 7 days, $12.5M against $5.61M. over 30 days tron still leadsDefiLlama fees
- on hyperliquid, the ANT contract tied to the anthropic IPO dropped 20% in its first hour on $8.7M of volume@CoinDesk
- on solana, $KIM (+7464%) traded $8.1M at a $0.2M cap
04Week ahead4 dates
- monday 10am ETthe ISM survey of US factories, plus apple earnings, the first big test after friday's tech selloff
- tuesdayUS midterms, with polymarket at 94% for democrats in the house and 69% in the senate
- wednesday 8:30am ETtreasury's quarterly refunding shows if auction sizes stay steady, with the ten-year near 5% this past week
- friday morningoctober jobs report, 55,000 expected, and it feeds the fed's december 9 decision
05My view
if the big defi apps block those addresses, the stolen money gets harder to spend. meanwhile binance got robbed, the nasdaq had a rough october, and bitcoin ended the week with a small loss. buyers kept showing up through all of it, and $HYPE rose 15.2% over the same 7 days.
i can't tell yet who those buyers are. the risk i've mapped is cash leaving crypto: total stablecoin supply shrank 1.36% in 7 days, and it shows up on hyperliquid too, where traders paid fees 48% below the 30d average on the last reported day.
stablecoins still shrinking after friday's jobs report would change my mind, because that means new money isn't coming. big wallets on hyperliquid sit 2 long and 17 short on bitcoin, so the crowded side going into this week is the bearish one.
rest today. election tuesday, jobs friday. monday we lock tf in.