ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
arthur hayes sold about $22.28M of crypto this week, 6,400 ETH of it, ahead of a week with the fed, the bank of japan and big tech earnings
Source@CryptoHayes
that's the trade i want to understand today.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 80,293 | -0.7% | -2.2% |
| $ETH | 2326.4 | -1.3% | -3.4% |
| $SOL | 100.7 | -1.6% | -3.3% |
| BTC.D | 60.1% | ||
| F&G | 54 neutral |
01Crypto4 stories
- an argentine judge cleared milei and 10 others in the LIBRA case, the token that crashed 95%The Block
- 22 companies, wells fargo and cisco included, refused OKX and ICE tokenized versions of their own stockCoinDesk
- someone took over X100's governance vote and drained about 4.85M USDT from its treasury and liquidityThe Defiant
- keystone, the hardware wallet maker, says a website breach exposed customer home addressesThe Defiant
02Macro3 stories
03Trends3 stories
- on solana, pumpfun took $1.58M in fees over the last day and the ten trending coins traded $36M between them
- on that solana list, $Marvin ran +5263% to a $0.2M cap on $3.9M of volume and $WILDWOOD added +1282% to $0.1M, while $STONK, the biggest name there, ground out +9% to $92.4M
- fomo wallet, a trading app on solana and monad, passed GMGN on 30-day fees, $16.4M against $16.2MDefiLlama fees
04Week ahead4 dates
- tuesdaythe fed starts its two-day meeting, after september's hike to 3.75% to 4.00%
- wednesday 2pm ETthe fed decides, and futures price a hold. microsoft and alphabet report after the close, a direct test of AI spending
- thursday 8:30am ETfirst estimate of Q3 growth plus september PCE, the inflation gauge the fed trusts most. amazon reports after the close
- fridaythe bank of japan decides with its rate around 1.25%. any hint of a december hike moves the yen
05My view
hayes is one well-known trader booking a profit, and the market absorbed it. bitcoin finished the week with a small loss and the fear gauge stayed neutral, so nobody panicked out. on hyperliquid, the wallets tagged as smart money are 14 short to 3 long on bitcoin, with funding flat. a crowd leaning that short into a fed week leaves more room for a pleasant surprise than an ugly one.
the risk i'm tracking is liquidity. stablecoin supply shrank 0.67% over the week to $302.6B, so fewer new dollars are coming in, and the bond market for riskier companies is nervous too. wednesday's fed call and thursday's inflation print settle most of that.
if the fed hints at a december hike and PCE runs hot, the shorts get paid and i'll say so. until then i read this as a tired market where the sellers have mostly already sold.
brazil counts votes tonight, then it's fed, PCE and the bank of japan back to back. rest up, monday we lock tf in.