ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
bitcoin held above $80,108 for five straight days while markets priced 78% odds of a december fed hike
wednesday at 2:00pm ET, warsh tells us whether that bet was right.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 80,422 | +0.4% | -1.8% |
| $ETH | 2331.9 | +0.1% | -3.1% |
| $SOL | 101.6 | +0.3% | -3.2% |
| BTC.D | 60.1% | ||
| F&G | 50 neutral |
01Crypto4 stories
- galaxy research says 11.1 million bitcoin, 55% of supply, has no identifiable ownerCoinDesk
- netanyahu called blockchain "an alternative to sanctions" two days before israel votesCointelegraph
- ether ETFs are down about $1.18 billion in october after a fourth losing weekDecrypt
- coindcx is eating a 15.99 million USDT loss after its CEO called it a false alarmThe Block
02Macro3 stories
- trump on iran: "do I make a deal or finish them off?" (CBS News). brent still eased 1.9% to $114.47ABC News
- france's 10-year spread over germany closed at its widest since 2011, near 170bpSaxo
- lula won a fourth term with 51.8%, and flavio bolsonaro is asking for the result to be annulledCBS News
03Trends3 stories
- on solana, pumpfun took $1.40M in fees over the last day and the ten trending coins traded $67M. $STONK (+15%) pushed past $106.0M while $LAUNCH (+87119%) went from nowhere to a $2.5M cap on $12.2M of volume
- GMGN, a trading app on ethereum and solana, took the lead back from fomo wallet on 7-day fees, $2.12M against $1.82MDefiLlama fees
- playboi carti's X account tagged pumpfun, and $CARTI on solana ran to $1.2M before dropping 64%Bitcoin.com News, via @CryptoGorilla
04Today3 stories
- the 2-year treasury auction, a read on how much tightening bond buyers expect
- the dallas fed manufacturing survey and verizon earnings, a quiet start to a loud week
- tomorrow the fed starts its two-day meeting, with visa and robinhood reporting the same day
05My view
that floor held with oil this expensive and the ten-year at 4.99%. sellers had every reason to push bitcoin through it last week and couldn't. that's real demand sitting under the price.
the risk i'm tracking is who buys next. stablecoin supply shrank 0.72% on the week to $302.4B, so the money holding the floor was already inside, and DWF labs found ETF holders sold in 7 of 8 big bitcoin drops. the new buyer hasn't arrived yet.
wednesday sorts most of it. a hold with no hike talk from warsh removes the biggest risk this market carries. if he leans into december, the floor gets its real test, and i'd want stablecoins growing again before i trust the next leg up.
fed wednesday, ecb thursday, boj and $11B of bitcoin options expiring friday. lock tf in.