ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the fed, the bank of england and the bank of japan all decide rates this week
i only care about wednesday, where traders price 87% odds of the first fed hike since december 2025.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 76,751 | -0.6% | -4.4% |
| $ETH | 2481.9 | -1.7% | -1.3% |
| $SOL | 99.8 | -1.9% | -6.4% |
| BTC.D | 58.8% | ||
| F&G | 61 greed |
01Crypto4 stories
- revolut handed over a customer's passport and full bitcoin history to a spoofed government requestthe block
- a symbiosis bug minted 368.9 billion synthetic bitcoin. the attacker cashed out 336,000 dollarssymbiosis
- bitcoin suisse is cutting up to 60 swiss jobs, half its local staff@CoinDesk
- every dollar of forced liquidation in the last day hit shorts, $781k of it, nothing on the long side
02Macro3 stories
- the 10 year closed friday at 4.97%, with three central bank decisions still ahead of it
- the s&p 500 bounced friday and still ended the week 0.8% lowerbloomberg
- bahrain skipped the iran talks over hormuz, the strait that normally moves a fifth of the world's oil. crude still closed friday down 3.73%al jazeera
03Trends2 stories
- pons, the launchpad on robinhood's own chain, took $49.0M of fees in seven days against uniswap v4's $35.3M on ethereum. uniswap is still the bigger one over thirty daysdefillama
- stonkfun on solana went from $0.53M of weekly fees to $8.23M, and its $STONK token now carries a $239.2M market cap, +7% on the day@ambcrypto, defillama
04Today2 stories
- wednesday 2pm ET, the fed decision and press conference. the projections matter more than the hike everyone already priced
- friday, the bank of japan, where all 52 economists in bloomberg's survey expect a hike, which would put japan at its highest policy rate in roughly 31 years
05My view
crypto spent this week paying for wednesday before the fed has said a word. five down sessions, every large coin lower, and sentiment readings warming up through all of it. that is people deciding the bad news is already in the price.
what does not fit is the money. stablecoin supply sits at $310.3B and has barely moved in seven days. a relief move after a hike needs fresh dollars showing up to fund it, and they are not showing up.
i change my mind if the fed hikes and the long end falls with it, because that would mean bond traders think this is the last one. if yields keep grinding higher after wednesday, the hike was never the story, and the firms cutting staff this weekend are the better read on what these rates do to this industry.
sunday, and nothing gets settled before wednesday afternoon. go outside.