ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
polymarket has a market on what the fed does wednesday and the crowd puts 79% on a rate hike, zero on a cut
crypto closed the week reading greed anyway.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 77,966 | +1.5% | -1.4% |
| $ETH | 2516.8 | +1.6% | +1.1% |
| $SOL | 101.9 | +2.7% | -1.8% |
| BTC.D | 58.9% | ||
| F&G | 57 greed |
01Crypto3 stories
- polymarket's us book took $12.5M in fees over seven days, above hyperliquid perps at $12.3M. over a month hyperliquid is still far bigger.@DefiLlama
- $SUI fell 11.6% on the week, worst of the big names.
- ethereum collected $0.2M of network fees in 24h, 44% under its monthly pace.
02Macro3 stories
- the ten year closed at 4.97% and the average mortgage is back at 7.12%. via wolf street
- the dollar index gained 0.46% friday while gold gave back 1.13%.
- junk bond spreads widened 5 basis points in five days. small move, new direction.
03Today2 stories
- wednesday 2pm ET, the fed announces its rate decision and publishes where each official expects rates to go. powell takes questions at 2:30.
- tuesday, china publishes its monthly health check: factory output, retail spending, investment.
04Trends3 stories
- pons, a launchpad on robinhood's own chain, pulled $46.7M in fees over seven days against uniswap v4 on ethereum at $31.3M. uniswap is still ahead over thirty days.@DefiLlama
- on solana $STONK round tripped to -23% at a $179.1M cap, $CATE ran +38% to $73.2M, and $NINA did +11061% from a $0.3M cap.
- $ZCAT on solana pays its holders in zcash. $6.26M sent out so far to 29,413 wallets, about $21 a day per $10,000 held at today's volume.
05My view
nobody was pricing a hike a few months ago. the ten year yield and the mortgage rate up there are what the change already looks like for anyone who borrows money, and the fed meets wednesday.
crypto has not repriced any of it. bitcoin and solana closed the week lower and sentiment still reads greed, which means holders either think this is noise or they have not looked. i cannot separate those two from the outside yet.
the argument on the other side is flow. ether funds took in $216.4M in a single day while the bitcoin funds lost $13.3M, in the same week ethereum's own fee revenue cooled. that is money buying the asset while the usage slows. for now the bond market sets the price. if those ether inflows keep running into wednesday, i am wrong and the buyers were early.
it is sunday and nothing settles before wednesday. go outside.