ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the fed hiked 25bp yesterday, its first move up since 2023, and the 10 year closed back above 5%
bitcoin is flat on the week and i don't read that as strength.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 76,355 | +0.2% | -0.2% |
| $ETH | 2433.3 | +0.7% | -0.2% |
| $SOL | 99.8 | +1.2% | +1.2% |
| BTC.D | 58.3% | ||
| F&G | 50 neutral |
01Crypto4 stories
- circle's arc chain went live with blackrock, dtcc and visa among its 11 validatorsThe Block
- companies buying bitcoin for their balance sheets took 5,900 coins in three months, against 89,000 in july 2025 alone@Cointelegraph
- bitcoin ETFs paid out $296.0M yesterday, ether ETFs another $224.1M
- $NEAR is up 15.5% over seven days, the only major coin that went anywhere
02Macro3 stories
- the fed raised to 3.75% to 4%, vote 12 to 0, first hike since 2023Federal Reserve
- the dow fell 631 points, 1.21%, after warsh said inflation is still too highYahoo Finance
- brent fell 2.7% to $105.83 on word the saudi pipeline restarts within daysCNBC
03Trends3 stories
- the ten busiest new coins on solana traded $124M between them in a day, led by $PAID (+148%, $22.4M market cap) and $STONK (+25%, $180.6M market cap)
- pons v2, the launchpad on robinhood's chain, collected $35.2M in fees over seven days against uniswap v4's $25.1M. over 30 days uniswap is still ahead, $125.4M to $122.8MDefiLlama
- arc's first day did $410.8M of trading volume, 82% of it on launchpads, arguspad alone $202M (BeInCrypto). goplus flagged fake ARGUS and TOLLY copies the same dayGoPlus Security
04Today3 stories
- 7am ET: the bank of england decides on rates, a day after UK inflation printed 3.1%, the highest since march. three of its members already voted to hike back in july
- 8:30am ET: US jobless claims and the philadelphia fed factory survey, the first hard data since the hike and a read on whether another one fits
- tonight ETjapan publishes august inflation, the last number before the bank of japan decides tomorrow with the yen near 160
05My view
the fed raised rates yesterday for the first time in three years and not one voter dissented. stocks took it badly. crypto did nothing at all, which it has now done for eleven sessions running.
that flatness is doing a lot of work for people who want to call this a floor. the companies that spent last cycle stacking bitcoin on their balance sheets have nearly stopped buying, both ETF complexes sent money out yesterday, and price still sits where it sat a week ago. nobody new is showing up, and nobody is being forced out either.
so i lean exhausted rather than accumulating. the thing that would move me off that: one session where treasury yields stay up here and bitcoin rises anyway, because then someone has decided a five handle on the risk free rate doesn't apply to them. haven't seen it yet.
boe at 7am ET, so today starts early. get the coffee going.