ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
bitcoin ETFs took in $999M monday, their biggest day since october 2025
that is the number this whole week's rally actually rests on.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 85,916 | -0.9% | +13.6% |
| $ETH | 2741.4 | -1.3% | +14.4% |
| $SOL | 116.7 | -1.9% | +20.5% |
| BTC.D | 58.9% | ||
| F&G | 78 extreme greed |
01Crypto4 stories
- strategy bought 950 $BTC for $75.7M, its first purchase in three weeksbloomberg
- circle now lets institutions borrow USDC against bitcoin, morpho is the first lending marketcircle
- X switched on tap-to-trade cashtags for about 132M daily mobile users@CoinDesk
- the DOJ is probing binance over possible iran sanctions breaches, a week after a $61M seizurebloomberg
02Macro4 stories
- the nasdaq jumped 2.26% to a record 27,122, the S&P's best day since augustTheStreet
- AMD passed $1 trillion in market value after a 25% five-day runCNBC
- brent fell 3.1% to $100.62 as tankers move through hormuz againAP
- the fed's collins backs the hike to 3.75% to 4.00% and expects one more this yearAP
03Trends3 stories
- traders paid $24.3M over seven days to swap on pumpswap, the solana exchange, against $20.5M on pons v2, the launchpad on robinhood chain. over thirty days pons is still the bigger business, $135.8M to $102.4M@DefiLlama
- hyperliquid's perps venue went from $13.3M to $20.0M in weekly fees, 1.5x, the fastest riser of anything above a million@DefiLlama
- the ten trending coins on solana traded $134M between them. $STONK is the heavy one at $277.5M mcap and -6% on the day, while $CLIP ($0.6M mcap, +17624%) and $SI ($1.2M mcap, +30309%) did $9.6M and $9.8M of volume on almost no market cap
04Today3 stories
- 1pm ET: the treasury sells two-year notes, the first real demand test since last week's hike
- williams, jefferson and barkin speak, plus lagarde, and we find out how hawkish they sound now
- thursdayxi visits the white house with a pentagon blacklist of nearly 200 chinese firms hanging over itJapan Times
05My view
money walked back into bitcoin ETFs monday at a size nobody has seen in almost a year, and it did it in the same week the fed raised rates and penciled in another hike. strategy started buying again after three weeks of nothing. every major coin closed the week up double digits. a market that takes a hike and goes up has real buyers behind it.
the risk i'm tracking is the bond market. the ten-year at 4.96% is the level that prices everything else, and this afternoon's auction is the first honest read on demand for paper at these yields. the second one is stablecoin supply, $311.8B and up only 1.14% in thirty days, which means the move ran on money already sitting inside crypto rather than new dollars arriving.
what flips me is straightforward. a clean auction plus another big ETF day wednesday and the new-dollar problem fixes itself. yields through five with the ETF number going quiet and the hike finally gets its say. as of this morning the buyers are the ones setting the price, and the evidence is a green week across every major coin with a rate hike sitting inside it.
auction at 1pm, three fed speakers after it. that decides how the rest of the week prices. lock in.