ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the fed raised rates to 4.00% and penciled in one more hike, and the ten year topped 5.04% midweek
crypto went up all week anyway and i can't square it.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 80,353 | -1.2% | +4.6% |
| $ETH | 2573.7 | -2.2% | +3.9% |
| $SOL | 108.1 | -2.7% | +9.0% |
| BTC.D | 58.9% | ||
| F&G | 71 greed |
01Crypto4 stories
- visa banned memecoin purchases on its cards, killing the rewards on solana railsthe block
- bitcoin etfs took $433M friday while ether funds ended a four week run of inflowsthe block
- hyperliquid turned on native borrowing and traders drew $269M the first day@WuBlockchain
- solana cut block times to 250ms, its third speed cut since augustdecrypt
02Macro3 stories
- the ten year ended friday at 4.998% after a week of sellingcnbc
- the bank of japan hiked to 1.25% and the yen still lost 2.15% on the weekbloomberg
- openai told investors it expects $278 billion of negative cash flow through 2030financial times
03Trends3 stories
- the ten busiest solana coins traded $134M between them in a day. $STONK took $39.2M of that at a $222.1M cap, up 8%, while $JEANPHIL went from nowhere to $14.8M of volume and a $4.8M cap, up 157,906%
- pumpswap, the trading pool side of pumpfun on solana, collected $24.1M of fees over seven days against uniswap v4's $22.5M across ethereum and unichaindefillama
- fees on robinhood chain fell 97% to $230K a day while transactions only fell 32%, so whoever is left is paying a lot less to be therecoindesk
04Today3 dates
- mondaychina sets its loan prime rates, the one year seen at 3.0% and the five year at 3.5%. asia easing while the fed hikes is this week's main tension
- tuesday 1pm ETthe treasury sells two year notes. weak demand there means buyers don't believe one more hike is the last one
- friday 4am ETquarterly bitcoin and ether options expire on deribit, so quarter end positioning gets cleared in one shot
05My view
the fed is tightening into a market that had already written the hiking off. another raise got added to the dot plot this year, the bond market believed it the same day, and crypto closed the week green across every major coin anyway.
what bugs me is who paid for it. stablecoin supply, the dry powder sitting on exchanges waiting to buy coins, finished the week at $309.9B and moved -0.09% in seven days. nobody wired fresh dollars in. the week's buying was money already inside crypto changing seats.
that holds until wednesday, when the us and europe publish their first september activity readings, the flash pmis, the earliest honest look at whether growth is surviving more expensive money. strong numbers with the ten year parked where it ended friday and the seat swap read stands. soft numbers and rate cuts get priced again, and i'm the guy who called a green week a seat swap.
sunday. nothing prints and nothing settles, so go eat something that isn't at your desk.