ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
core inflation came in at 3.0% in august, under the 3.3% economists expected
the ten-year still sits at 5.29%, and friday's jobs report decides which number the fed believes.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 83,729 | +0.1% | -0.8% |
| $ETH | 2693.6 | +0.3% | +0.2% |
| $SOL | 117.6 | -0.4% | +0.5% |
| BTC.D | 58.9% | ||
| F&G | 74 greed |
01Crypto3 stories
- open usd went live with $1B of committed liquidity from coinbase, visa, stripe and mastercard@CoinDesk
- a metamask security incident pushed 17,000 ethereum validators holding 523,000 ETH into the exit queue@CoinDesk
- base shipped its cobalt upgrade and plans to cut block times from 2 seconds to 200 millisecondsThe Block
02Macro2 stories
- micron's quarterly revenue more than quadrupled to $54.2B, and it guided $61.5B for next quarterBloomberg
- the nikkei jumped to 68,956 on that forecast, a six-week highReuters
03Trends2 stories
- solana's ten trendiest coins traded $131M between them in a day, and pumpfun collected $2.14M of fees on that, ahead of hyperliquid's $1.65MDefiLlama
- $SI, a solana coin that pays its holders in an nvidia-linked token, traded $39.1M against a $39.7M market cap and has paid out $2.18M since launch. the payout is a 3% tax on every trade, so it lasts exactly as long as the volume does
04Today2 stories
- jobless claims at 8:30 ET, the last look at layoffs before the jobs report
- ism manufacturing at 10:00 ET, the read on factory orders and what firms pay for inputs. august was 54.6
05My view
coinbase, visa, stripe and mastercard just put a billion dollars of committed liquidity behind one dollar token. four payments companies decided the rails are worth owning, in a week bitcoin went nowhere. adoption arriving while the price does nothing is the version of this i like.
the risk is long-term interest rates. a ten-year yield up here makes every risk asset compete with a government bond, and the softer inflation print did not pull it down. bitcoin funds also saw $148.7M of outflows on the latest print. friday's jobs report, consensus near 84,000, settles it: a hot number revives the october hike and crypto pays for it first.
what changes my read is stablecoin supply, $310.7B and still growing 1.15% on the week. the money that buys dips has not left. if it starts shrinking while yields stay up, the bid under this nine-day range goes with it.
claims first, ism second, the number that matters on friday. lock in.