ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
citi raised its bitcoin target from $82,000 to $113,000 this week, with the ten-year yield at a 24-year high
the september jobs report at 8:30 ET decides who was early.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 86,424 | +1.9% | +2.8% |
| $ETH | 2748.7 | +1.6% | +2.1% |
| $SOL | 121.9 | +3.0% | -0.2% |
| BTC.D | 58.8% | ||
| F&G | 72 greed |
01Crypto4 stories
- the sec put out a 760-page rule that would let advisers and funds hold crypto themselves instead of parking it at a bankdecrypt
- lloyds and visa settled $750,000 in USDC over a seven-day live pilotthe block
- a metamask staking incident forced 17,000 validators holding 523,000 ETH out of lido, the biggest staking pool on ethereum@CoinDesk
- $705k of long bitcoin bets got force-closed in the last 24 hours, the biggest single one $203k
02Macro2 stories
- the ten-year treasury yield touched 5.34% on thursday and closed at 5.24%reuters
- factory input prices jumped 6.8 points to 77.9 in septemberism
03Trends3 stories
- traders paid pumpfun $2.40M in fees in a day on solana, and the ten hottest coins there traded $124M between them
- pumpfun passed pons on fees over the last 7 days, $15.3M on solana against $10.4M on robinhood chain, though over 30 days pons is still ahead, $129.4M against $47.1Mdefillama
- $www came from nothing to a $5.6M market cap on $25.0M of volume, up 166648%, while $STONK sat at a $198.0M cap on $15.8M, up 4%
04Today3 stories
- 8:30 ET, the september jobs report. consensus is near 90,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment, and forecasts run from 35,000 to 180,000
- a hot wage number puts a fed hike back on the table for the october 27 to 28 meeting, priced near 28%
- monday 10:00 ET, ISM services prices, which shows whether that factory cost jump reached services
05My view
citi lifted its 12-month bitcoin target into this bond market and put ether at $3,028 next to it. a bank does not publish that unless it expects buyers at these yields. underneath the price, solana's network collected $1.1M of fees in a day, 33% above its own 30-day pace.
the risk has dates on it. $58B of three-year notes get auctioned tuesday and $39B of ten-years wednesday, the first real demand test since yields hit their highest since 2002. soft auctions lift yields, and crypto reprices off that with no crypto news needed.
what would move me is the stablecoin pile, $311.5B and barely changed on the week, which means the green close came from money already inside. if that starts climbing while yields stay up here, october has real fuel behind it.
two hours to the jobs number. that is the whole day. lock in.