ilqdty daily2 min readRead the latest
the ten-year treasury yield hit 5.37% this week, the highest in 24 years
that number is the price of money in every model that values a coin, and wednesday's inflation print moves it next.
| Markets | Level | 24h | week |
|---|---|---|---|
| $BTC | 82,952 | +0.4% | -2.1% |
| $ETH | 2506.8 | +0.8% | -6.7% |
| $SOL | 110.3 | +1.0% | -7.8% |
| BTC.D | 59.1% | ||
| F&G | 64 greed |
01Crypto4 stories
- starknet is weighing leaving ethereum to run as its own chain, and STRK jumped 20% on it.Decrypt
- the xrp ledger quietly patched a bug from 2015 that could have minted xrp past its 100 billion cap.@CoinDesk
- ether ETFs lost $697M over nine days, and solana's 14-week run of inflows ended.The Block
- the co-creator of empire market got 40 years and forfeited 1,230 bitcoin, about $101M.Decrypt
02Macro3 stories
- us consumer sentiment fell to 46.3, near the 44.8 record low from may.Yahoo Finance
- trump struck a deal with putin for russian diesel, with us pump prices at $6.23.Fortune
- bank stocks are down about 13% from their august peak going into tuesday's earnings.reuters
03Trends3 stories
- pumpfun on solana collected $2.20M of fees in a day and passed hyperliquid's perp exchange at $2.13M.DefiLlama fees
- pumpfun opened custom pairs, so new solana coins can launch against existing pumpfun tokens instead of against sol.TokenPost
- the ten coins trending on solana did $65M of combined volume in a day, all of it tiny and fast: $Altai turned a $1.2M market cap into $16.3M of volume, +36975%, $CLAUDIA is the biggest of them at $3.5M and +157%, and $QI is the only red one, -8% on $6.8M of volume.
04Week ahead4 dates
- mondaycolumbus day. the us bond market is shut, stocks trade normally, so no fresh yield signal until tuesday.
- tuesdayjpmorgan, goldman, citi and wells fargo open earnings season, the first read on whether yields above 5% are hurting lending and dealmaking.
- wednesday 8:30 am ETseptember consumer inflation, forecast 3.6% year-over-year from 3.4%, the last big print before the fed meets october 27 to 28.
- thursday 8:30 am ETseptember retail sales, forecast +0.3% after +1.2%, a test of whether people keep spending with sentiment this low.
05My view
the week's story is that money got more expensive and crypto held together anyway. high-yield credit spreads tightened 9 basis points over five days, so lenders stayed calm while yields climbed. a market that absorbs the highest borrowing costs in 24 years and stays inside its range has real buyers under it.
the risk i'm tracking is who pays for the next leg up. stablecoins sit at $311.0B and shrank 0.30% over the past week, so the fresh dollars a breakout needs have not shown up. wednesday's print is the date that settles it, with the fed meeting three weeks behind it.
i get more constructive the day stablecoin supply starts growing again and inflation lands under forecast, because that pairs cheaper money with new cash. until then the base case is this range with buyers defending it, which is a fine place to sit while the long end makes highs.
quiet saturday, and nothing resolves before wednesday. rest up, then monday we lock tf in.